On Monday the International Energy Agency indicated that total US crude output will increase by 1.3 million barrels a day from 2015 to 2021 despite a continued slump in oil prices. US shale output is currently decreasing and is expected to decrease in 2017, but is then expected to increase production once again from 2018 onward. In its medium term report, the IAE stated ‘anybody who believes that we have seen the last of rising US shale oil production should think again.’